A decisive mandate: On Tarique Rahman, the BNP, the Bangladesh result

Jamaat’s defeat, India and Bangladesh have a chance to repair their relations. With a landslide victory, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is poised to form a government in Dhaka, with its leader, Tarique Rahman, becoming the country’s first male Prime Minister in decades. Mr. Rahman’s journey to office has been dramatic, having returned to Bangladesh just days before the death of his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, after two decades of being barred from elections (due to cases) and forced into exile under the previous Awami League government. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is expected to hand over power to Mr. Rahman. Despite holding more than two-thirds of the elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, the BNP faces numerous challenges. As the first elected government after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024, its primary task will be to restore old political institutions and foster political reconciliation. This could mean releasing political prisoners and reaching out to the banned Awami League, many of whose supporters abstained from voting. The next step will be preparing for the challenge from the Jamaat-e-Islami, whose alliance won nearly 75 seats in Parliament, its best performance ever. Now, as a more vocal opposition, the Jamaat, whose leaders have taken a more conservative stance on women’s rights and religious politics, will attempt to push the new centrist government to the right. Voters also overwhelmingly supported the “July Charter” referendum, which demanded a caretaker government, reforms that could alter the Prime Minister’s powers, and an upper house in Parliament with proportional representation. Meanwhile, Mr. Rahman must act swiftly to revive the economy and restart trade links with India. For New Delhi, eager to repair relations that reached a nasty low during Mr. Yunus’s tenure, engaging with the new government is crucial. The Modi government has had tensions with the BNP because it curtailed engagement with the Bangladeshi opposition during Ms. Hasina’s tenure. It must also regain the space given to Pakistan, the U.S., and China, which have forged new relationships with Bangladesh since Ms. Hasina’s departure. Perhaps more than bilateral relations, including broken trade and connectivity, security, and sporting ties, New Delhi and Dhaka must repair the strained relations between their peoples. In Bangladesh, securing India’s mission and ensuring the safety of minorities will be crucial. For India, it is crucial to reduce domestic rhetoric against Bangladesh, which is allowing political groups (many of which are affiliated with the ruling party) to intimidate Bangladeshis in India. However, the Modi and Rahman governments will have to carefully manage the case of Miss Hasina, who remains a wanted fugitive in Dhaka and an honoured guest in Delhi, if they want to make a fresh start in relations.

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